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July 2026: Government declines to widen the Thirlwall terms of reference (16 July) · new 100-page insulin report to the CCRC challenging the trial evidence (9 July) · Thirlwall report still expected no earlier than September · inquests relisted to 2027 · Shoo Lee Panel: no medical evidence of deliberate harm.

Lucy Letby Facts
Independent commentary

Discussing New Lucy Letby Cases With Prof. Richard Gill

Statistician Prof. Richard Gill joins the host to discuss the CPS's decision not to pursue new charges against Lucy Letby and the ongoing Cheshire Police investigation. Gill explains the hook effect problem in insulin immunoassay testing, which can cause falsely elevated readings at very high insulin concentrations and is not a forensic-grade methodology. He also revisits the shift-presence statistics, noting that the analysis was never conducted for all nursing staff across the same period, making any claim of significance unjustified. The conversation covers the significance of tube-displacement incidents as a natural cause of neonatal collapse and the failure of investigators to commission an independent multidisciplinary expert panel as recommended by the NCA. Gill warns that the evidential problems in the original trial are compounded, not resolved, by the prospect of further charges.

Last updated
2 min read

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Prof. Richard Gill

The hook effect means that at very high insulin concentrations the assay actually under-reads, and then at some point it starts to over-read. This was not a forensic-grade test — it was a hospital diagnostic assay being used to send someone to prison for life.
Topic: Discussing New Lucy Letby Cases With Prof. Richard Gill

Prof. Richard Gill

If you want to test whether a nurse was unusually present at adverse events, you have to look at all the nurses over the same period. That was never done. What was done was to look at one person after you had already decided she was guilty.
Topic: Discussing New Lucy Letby Cases With Prof. Richard Gill

Prof. Richard Gill

The NCA recommended a panel of experts including a statistician. That recommendation was overridden. One retired paediatrician ran the whole investigation. That should have been a massive red flag.
Topic: Discussing New Lucy Letby Cases With Prof. Richard Gill
statistics
insulin-immunoassay
hook-effect
NCA-panel
new-charges
tube-displacement

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Independent YouTube commentator.

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