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July 2026: Government declines to widen the Thirlwall terms of reference (16 July) · new 100-page insulin report to the CCRC challenging the trial evidence (9 July) · Thirlwall report still expected no earlier than September · inquests relisted to 2027 · Shoo Lee Panel: no medical evidence of deliberate harm.

Lucy Letby Facts
Independent commentary

Lucy Letby Talks Prof. John O'Quigley + More

A commentary host covers the Manchester 19 Nurses event, including an introduction from founder Jean-Philippe Young reporting six hundred and fifty-four members. Professor John O'Quigley of UCL, a statistician, presents analysis showing the shift chart is a scientific fake that cannot be reproduced. He describes the statistical evidence as worthless, citing Lord Justice Jackson's characterisation of it. O'Quigley's relative-risk analysis shows that Nurse 23 (Lucy Letby) had no statistically greater presence at adverse events than five or six other nurses working equivalent hours. He also suggests the Beverly Allitt shift chart was likely also fabricated. The host explains why the shift chart cannot be reused by the prosecution in any future retrial.

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2 min read

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Extracts transcribed from the linked video, quoted under fair dealing for review and news reporting (CDPA 1988 s.30). Source links are being restored: these extracts were transcribed from the videos but the per-video URLs and timestamps were not recorded, so they cannot yet be checked against the recording. Treat them as reported rather than verified, and see our corrections policy if you believe one is wrong.

Prof John O'Quigley (UCL statistician, Manchester event)

The shift chart cannot be reproduced. I have tried. My colleagues have tried. It is a scientific fake.
Topic: On the shift chart being irreproducible

Prof John O'Quigley (UCL statistician, Manchester event)

Lord Justice Jackson described the statistical evidence in this case as worthless. I agree with him. It is worthless.
Topic: On the statistical evidence being legally and scientifically without value

Prof John O'Quigley (UCL statistician, Manchester event)

When you control for hours worked, Nurse 23 is no more present at adverse events than five or six other nurses. There is no statistical spike. There is nothing there.
Topic: On relative risk analysis showing no statistical significance for Letby

Speaker 1 (host)

The prosecution cannot use the shift chart in a retrial. If they try, it will be destroyed in minutes by a competent statistician. O'Quigley has just given them a preview of exactly what that would look like.
Topic: On the shift chart being unusable in future proceedings
manchester-event
shift-chart
statistics
expert-evidence
miscarriage-of-justice

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Independent YouTube commentator.

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