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July 2026: Government declines to widen the Thirlwall terms of reference (16 July) · new 100-page insulin report to the CCRC challenging the trial evidence (9 July) · Thirlwall report still expected no earlier than September · inquests relisted to 2027 · Shoo Lee Panel: no medical evidence of deliberate harm.

Lucy Letby Facts
Medical evidence

Dextrose rebound hypoglycaemia — confounder for insulin/C-peptide reading

The prosecution’s claim: Babies F and L showed insulin/C-peptide patterns the prosecution treated as proof of exogenous insulin.

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2 min read

Prosecution claim

Babies F and L showed insulin/C-peptide patterns the prosecution treated as proof of exogenous insulin.

Counter-evidence

When dextrose treatment for neonatal hypoglycaemia is administered and then weaned, rebound hypoglycaemia is a recognised phenomenon driven by transient hyperinsulinism in response to the dextrose load. The Joint Expert Witness Insulin Report on Babies F and L sets out that a C-peptide reading taken from a dextrose-treated infant does not reflect baseline pancreatic function and cannot be used as a forensic marker without the paired pre-treatment sampling that was not performed. The Shoo Lee Panel's own conclusion is simpler and more fundamental: the insulin/C-peptide ratios in Children F and L were within the range normal for preterm infants and do not prove exogenous insulin. The hypoglycaemia itself, on the Panel's findings, is explained by prematurity, intrauterine growth restriction, sepsis and a tissued long line in Child F's case — and by inadequate management in both.

Key point: C-peptide is suppressed by dextrose treatment. The C-peptide reading taken after dextrose was given does not reflect the baby's baseline. Without pre-treatment sampling, the insulin/C-peptide pattern cannot bear the forensic weight it was given at trial.

What the jury heard

The insulin/C-peptide pattern was presented as diagnostic of exogenous insulin. The dextrose-treatment confounder for C-peptide was not foregrounded.

What the Panel says

The Panel's finding is that the insulin/C-peptide ratios in Children F and L were within the range normal for preterm infants and do not prove exogenous insulin; the hypoglycaemia is attributed to prematurity, growth restriction, sepsis, a tissued long line (Child F) and inadequate management. The Joint Expert Witness Insulin Report separately identifies dextrose-treatment effects on C-peptide as one of several confounders that place the insulin counts below the criminal-evidential threshold.

What independent experts add

  • Adel Ismail's clinical-biochemistry commentary covers dextrose-rebound and other physiological confounders for the Cobas immunoassay.
  • The dextrose-treatment confounder applies to both Babies F and L.
  • The Panel's own answer to the insulin counts does not depend on the confounders at all: it found the insulin/C-peptide ratios to be within preterm norms.

Further reading

Source: Joint Expert Witness Insulin Report (May 2025); endocrinology literature on dextrose-induced C-peptide suppression; Adel Ismail clinical biochemistry commentary