July 2026: Government declines to widen the Thirlwall terms of reference (16 July) · new 100-page insulin report to the CCRC challenging the trial evidence (9 July) · Thirlwall report still expected no earlier than September · inquests relisted to 2027 · Shoo Lee Panel: no medical evidence of deliberate harm.
Conflict-map · Post-conviction statistical experts
Statistics (Cambridge); past-president RSS
Cambridge statistician and former RSS president Sir David Spiegelhalter gave a formal witness statement to the Thirlwall Inquiry, dated 15 January 2025, analysing whether existing statistical-monitoring systems would have flagged the 2015-16 rise in neonatal deaths at the Countess of Chester Hospital. He examined the unit's data through the MBRRACE-UK and CQC outlier-detection frameworks and carried out his own statistical calculation using the unit's historical death counts.
Spiegelhalter concluded the unit's neonatal mortality rate was higher than average in 2015 and 2016 but not a 'clear outlier' compared with other units, and that the CQC's system did not flag it at the time. His own calculation, using 2010-14 death counts, put the probability of the 2015 total occurring by chance at around 0.008 to 0.02 - enough to trigger a monitoring 'alert' nationally about once a year by chance alone, but not proof of a cause.
Cross-reference on the main experts conflict-map page.
Post-conviction statistical experts.