Main contribution
Led the statistical critique that overturned Lucia de Berk's conviction. Public author of the statistical critique of the Letby shift-rota chart since 2023.
July 2026: Government declines to widen the Thirlwall terms of reference (16 July) · new 100-page insulin report to the CCRC challenging the trial evidence (9 July) · Thirlwall report still expected no earlier than September · inquests relisted to 2027 · Shoo Lee Panel: no medical evidence of deliberate harm.
Conflict-map · Post-conviction statistical experts
Mathematical statistics; Lucia de Berk lead
Led the statistical critique that overturned Lucia de Berk's conviction. Public author of the statistical critique of the Letby shift-rota chart since 2023.
The shift-rota chart is a textbook example of selection bias (the Texas sharpshooter fallacy).
Cross-reference on the main experts conflict-map page.
Post-conviction statistical experts.