July 2026: Government declines to widen the Thirlwall terms of reference (16 July) · new 100-page insulin report to the CCRC challenging the trial evidence (9 July) · Thirlwall report still expected no earlier than September · inquests relisted to 2027 · Shoo Lee Panel: no medical evidence of deliberate harm.
Conflict-map · Post-conviction statistical experts
Emeritus Professor of Statistics, UCL
An honorary professor in the department of statistical science at UCL, O'Quigley told the Justice Gap in 2024 that the prosecution's shift-rota chart relied on what he calls the 'lottery fallacy' - treating a seemingly rare pattern as proof of wrongdoing without checking its probability under an innocent explanation. He argued the chart only showed that when the suspected nurse was on duty, she was on duty, since incidents were partly defined by her presence.
O'Quigley told the Justice Gap: 'Any statistician - a first year undergraduate in statistics - could show that's nonsense... you really don't need a sophisticated understanding of statistics to see that it is a complete crock.' Asked if he was certain Letby is innocent, he said: 'I cannot be certain that she's innocent. I can be certain that she did not get a fair trial... that chart evidence is a crock.'
Cross-reference on the main experts conflict-map page.
Post-conviction statistical experts.