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July 2026: Government declines to widen the Thirlwall terms of reference (16 July) · new 100-page insulin report to the CCRC challenging the trial evidence (9 July) · Thirlwall report still expected no earlier than September · inquests relisted to 2027 · Shoo Lee Panel: no medical evidence of deliberate harm.

Lucy Letby Facts

Conflict-map · Post-conviction statistical experts

Prof. Peter Green

Statistics (Bristol); past-president RSS

StatisticsStatistical analysis2Expert/professional
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Main contribution

Emeritus Professor of Statistics at Bristol and a past president of the Royal Statistical Society, Green chaired the RSS working party that produced 'Healthcare serial killer or coincidence?' (September 2022), a general report on statistical pitfalls in investigating suspected medical murder, published before Letby's trial concluded. In July 2024 he was one of 24 signatories, alongside Jane Hutton and Stephen Senn, to a private letter urging ministers to postpone or broaden the Thirlwall Inquiry's terms of reference.

Key claim

The 2022 report, which does not name Letby, set out general risks in investigating suspected serial medical harm, including treating coincidence as proof of guilt and investigative bias once a suspect is identified. The 2024 letter he signed argued the inquiry's narrow remit risked 'a failure in understanding and examining alternative, potentially complex causes for the deaths' and asked for further investigation before the inquiry proceeded on the assumption of murder.

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Related evidence

/evidence/shift-statistics

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Full biographical profile

Prof. Peter Green — biography

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